House Republicans, faced with the possibility of a blowout in this year’s midterm elections, are focusing on preserving as many seats as possible. However, their efforts are complicated by the precarious situation of several poor-quality candidates in districts that heavily favor Republicans.
Mired in President Donald Trump’s record-low approval ratings and the ongoing affordability crisis, Republicans across the country already face a hostile national environment, but these electoral headwinds are further exacerbated when the Republican candidate in a given race is of poor quality. This is seen even in safe red districts that Trump carried by double digits.
In Ohio’s 7th District (Trump +11), incumbent Rep. Max Miller has been accused of physically abusing his ex-wife and young daughter. Nevertheless, he remained in the race, defying calls to drop out from his fellow Republicans. Among them is Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, who is also the father of Miller’s ex-wife. His race, initially rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report, is now categorized as a “Toss-up,” and his Democratic opponent has outraised him. Still, national Republicans are standing by him, as evidenced by the millions spent on his campaign as well as their relative silence on his abuse allegations since he officially became the nominee.
In Texas’s 23rd District (Trump +15), incumbent Tony Gonzalez dropped his re-election bid after admitting to an affair with a staffer who died by suicide. However, his replacement, Brandon Herrera, did not alleviate Republican concerns. Herrera, a gun-rights YouTuber known as The AK Guy, has received backlash for various racist and sexist comments, such as calling a Nazi-era gun “the original ghetto blaster” and criticizing a pro-gun control mother using sexually explicit and demeaning language. Herrera has not apologized for any of his comments, but Republicans are still firmly backing him: House Speaker Mike Johnson criticized his language as “detestable,” but, in the same breath, praised his “very effective” campaign. However, Cook Political Report shifted their race rating from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican”. While he has significantly outraised his Democratic opponent, the political liability of his controversial remarks are further compounded by his refusal to move to the center in a district where moderate Republican voters matter.
After only winning in 2022 by 546 votes, Rep. Lauren Boebert switched to Colorado’s 4th District (Trump +18), the state’s most conservative. However, she yet again finds herself in another competitive race, in large part due to her being “an unusually weak candidate”. Boebert is an ultra-conservative, and these views have led to their own controversies, such as falsely claiming that a school district was "putting litter boxes in schools for people who identify as cats". Moreover, she’s also dogged by personal controversies: just this year, a complaint was filed with the House Ethics Committee alleging that she slept with three of her Congressional staffers (two of whom were women) and paid them hush money. Her controversial views and conduct are in stark contrast to her Democratic opponent, a moderate retired Navy rear admiral who has also vastly outraised and outspent her. Accordingly, her race is categorized as “Lean Republican” by Cook Political Report, down from its original rating as “Solid Republican”.
Finally, in New York’s 21st District (Trump +21), the Republican nominee is first-time candidate Anthony Constantino. Notably, this district is not just the most conservative of the four discussed, but also the one where Republicans are most divided. Though he won his primary by nearly 20 points, his brash and divisive rhetoric fractured the Republican base. Constantino, who owns a sticker company and is an amateur MAGA rapper, has also faced questions over his qualifications: his primary opponent called him “mentally unfit,” and when asked what the biggest city in his district is, he said to "ask Grok." Both of these factors have hurt Constantino and the $16 million he has spent on his campaign may not stop the bleeding: a recent Siena poll found him trailing his Democratic opponent by 4 points and his favorability rating underwater by 13 points. The race is categorized as “Lean Republican” by Cook Political Report, though it was originally rated as “Solid Republican”.
In districts where electability was an afterthought, these controversial candidates are now confronted with the real possibility of defeat. That said, all four could still win in spite of their personal failings, with three of them even favored to win. But why? Simply put, the base of the Republican Party largely consists of supporters of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, for whom party affiliation is paramount. These partisan voters care more about electing a Republican than anything else, including scandals: A July poll from Politico found that “two-thirds of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say they would continue supporting a GOP candidate accused of sexual assault — 13 percentage points higher than the share of Trump 2024 voters writ large, which include those who do not identify as MAGA.” As Bob Meale, a 78-year-old MAGA Republican who is voting for Miller, put it: “I wouldn’t elect him to be my preacher, [but] I need someone in line with my principles and priorities.”
This mentality explains the presence of several controversial members of Congress who won election on the back of their district’s partisanship: Boebert herself won reelection in 2024 by 12 percentage points. And even in a blue wave, facing off against a strong opponent and a deluge of Democratic spending, she is more likely than not to win. Electing candidates like Boebert represents more than just a victory for House Republicans; it is a victory for partisanship, polarization, and the further coarsening of civility and decency in the country’s politics.
Justin Sung is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a sophomore and studies government in the College.