Maria Elvira Salazar represents a Florida congressional district that President Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024; however, in mid-September, she released an ad directly criticizing the president’s immigration crackdown, telling him that “the same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.” Her ad is a microcosm of some of the prevailing stories of the 2026 midterms: a historically unpopular president, a potentially major Hispanic shift toward Democrats and a national environment that looks increasingly disastrous for Republicans. But it also illustrates another significant, yet relatively under-the-radar, story: Democrats might be able to make major gains in Florida.
Democratic gains in Florida, particularly if they amount to a statewide flip, would be a major shock given the party’s dire straits in the Sunshine State: only two years ago, a longtime Florida Democratic consultant suggested it “may take 25 years” for Democrats to be competitive again. The remark was far from hyperbolic, as, despite its previous status as a perennial swing-state, Florida has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2018, and Democrats’ obliteration up and down the ballot in 2024 ostensibly cemented its status as a red state. The party’s struggles were further compounded this year by Republicans’ congressional gerrymander, which redrew Florida’s congressional district map to create more Republican seats. Nevertheless, Democrats have persisted, and they have at least one reason to believe in their prospects: Hispanic voters.
Florida Republicans’ wins in 2024 and subsequent gerrymander were both predicated on strong Hispanic support. But, as evidenced by recent polling, that support is far from locked, particularly because of Trump’s immigration crackdowns shaking communities as well as persistently high prices exacerbating the affordability crisis, both of which make day-to-day life significantly more difficult. According to an analysis by Nate Cohn of The New York Times, “if one applied the demographic trends from recent Times/Siena national polls to districts across the country, Democratic gains among Hispanic voters would imperil Republicans in more than a dozen districts that Mr. Trump won by double digits,” a shift that would substantially tamper the efficacy of the Republican gerrymander.
As such, incumbent Reps. Kathy Castor (FL-14) and Darren Soto (FL-9), redrawn into Hispanic-heavy districts that Trump carried by double-digits, are running competitive races; election forecasters DDHQ and SplitTicket even rate Castor’s race as “Lean D.” The Times’ analysis also shows that the Hispanic shift affects Republican-held seats like FL-7 and FL-22, both of which are considered competitive. FL-27, Salazar’s district, is more than 70% Hispanic, and, despite her previous blowout wins, most election forecasters have shifted her race to a mere “Lean R.”
The Hispanic shift could also extend to the statewide races, and this effect in tandem with strong Democratic campaigns could lead to victory in the concurrent Senate and gubernatorial elections. In the Senate race, incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody faces off against state Rep. Angie Nixon. While Moody has run a campaign that “members of her own party grimly like[ned] to that of former President Joe Biden,” Nixon has made populism and organizing the cornerstones of her campaign – after all, they powered her to an upset victory in the Democratic primary despite being outspent 16-to-1. Moody leads Nixon in fundraising and polling, though her lead in the latter is not insurmountable.
Even riper for a Democratic upset is the race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, in which Rep. Byron Donalds faces off against former Republican-turned-Democrat Rep. David Jolly. One potential liability for Nixon is her progressive politics and membership in the Democratic Socialists of America, both of which don’t play well in Florida given the general conservative lean of the state and because socialism is toxic to the many Latino immigrants, exiles and refugees in the state who fled from left-wing regimes. This is not the case for Jolly: he has clearly positioned himself in the center, as symbolized by his selection of a fellow former moderate representative (Gwen Graham, also the daughter of the popular former moderate governor of Florida) as his running mate.
Moderation is important for a Democrat running statewide in Florida as the 1.5 million voter registration advantage for Republicans means winning over moderate crossover voters, both Republicans and No Party Affiliates (NPAs), is necessary for victory; in the red wave elections of 2010 and 2014, the moderate Democratic nominees for governor lost by only around 1% because of their stronger crossover appeal. Crossover appeal is especially relevant to this race given questions over Donalds’ ability to unite Republicans: a GOP fundraiser told CNN that “if there’s a candidate who can pull away those voters, it’s Jolly.”
Donalds faces multiple obstacles in uniting his base. He failed to secure 50% of the vote in his primary, and an opponent who secured over 10% of the primary vote continues to criticize him, claiming “as [Ron DeSantis] warned, Donalds is failing to consolidate the primary electorate, and he is getting crushed with young Republicans.” Additionally, conservative Hispanics, for reasons previously mentioned, may not show up for Donalds in November.
Further, Donalds faces a Trump problem: a full-on embrace of the president would be ill-advised due to his toxicity, but he also can’t shun him as it would risk damaging blowback from MAGA voters. According to The Wall Street Journal, Donalds has opted for a middle ground approach of “creating a modest amount of space.” To that end, he “has started to emphasize another endorsement—that of term-limited DeSantis, who is more popular than Trump in Florida,” though this is complicated by the tepid nature of DeSantis’s support. Donalds also scrubbed his campaign website of mentions of Trump, but the resulting damage control underscored his precarious positioning: as the president wrote in response to the story, “If Florida thought the story that Byron ‘dropped’ me was true, he would lose the Election.”
Donalds does have a crucial advantage over Jolly: money. As of October 2nd, the “Donalds campaign has raised $134.4 [million] overall while [David Jolly] has $16.6 [million].” This massive cash disparity matters particularly in the realm of television advertisements: Donalds has spent over $75 million while Jolly is backed by just $3 million. A massive advertising gap has major ramifications for a race, as epitomized by Donalds’s “hurricane tax” attack on Jolly’s homeowners’ insurance plan, which was “widely played on broadcast, cable and digital platforms.” Despite being a potentially highly damaging attack, Jolly’s campaign lacks the funds to respond on the same scale. Further, “he doesn’t have the funds to separately target Black voters, reach disaffected Republicans or sustain attacks against Donalds.” Outreach to Black voters is of particular concern for Jolly as he has struggled to appeal to them.
Polling indicates the race is tight, and major election forecasters have shifted their race ratings in Jolly’s favor, with Decision Desk HQ going as far as to label the contest a toss-up. That said, forecasters, Jolly and even some Republicans, agree the race would be closer if not for the significant money gap.
However, national Democrats and donors big and small have largely stayed out of both statewide Florida races, and, to an extent, the congressional races as well. This can be partly attributed to a relative lack of coverage of the state from the mainstream media, especially in comparison to other red-states like Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas.
There has been some buzz, such as Congressional Democratic leaders campaigning with candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) sending Nixon’s campaign $250,000 and national media outlet POLITICO publishing a piece arguing Democrats are underfunding Jolly. Though this may at least somewhat elevate Florida in the national political conscience, it is likely that Jolly, Nixon, and others will need more attention, and more importantly funding, to succeed.
But Florida Democrats aren’t waiting for national Democrats to come to the rescue. Both Nixon and Jolly are touring the state, and Nixon’s “appeal to Black voters, young people and progressives, who weren’t energized in the last two cycles,” could work to both of their benefits. Their campaigns are working in tandem with state and local Democratic organizations’ efforts to engage with voters and boost turnout: just last week, Democrats narrowed the Republican voter registration advantage for the first time since January 2021.
Justin Sung is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a sophomore and studies government in the College.